Drudge, Fineman Prematurely Counting Chickens

Just a short post about Hillary Clinton.  Drudge has this picture up this morning:

drudgery.jpg

 

Howard Fineman is postulating that Hillary is in trouble:

Sen. Hillary Clinton’s campaign is teetering on the brink, no matter what the meaningless national horserace numbers say. The notion that she has a post-Iowa “firewall” in New Hampshire is a fantasy, and she is in danger of losing all four early contests, including Nevada and South Carolina – probably to Sen. Barack Obama, who is now, in momentum terms, the Democratic frontrunner.

Now I would never claim to be the most politically informed person around.  Maybe one of the most opinionated–hey, deal with it.  But I’d just like to remind people that Howard Dean was expected to dominate in Iowa last time around, yet Kerry kicked him to the curb like a two-dollar whore.  (And then Howard got excited and the media crucified him for being passionate by branding it “the scream.”)  Clinton has much of the same machine Kerry had working for him last time, and no pundit can possibly tell what’s going to happen. 

I remain convinced that this election will be decided by the women voters.  And I’d just like to impart a small piece of advice: those who lean too much on polls inevitably will fall down.

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10 thoughts on “Drudge, Fineman Prematurely Counting Chickens

  1. Howard Dean was actually quite a conservative Democratic governor. He repeatedly rejected budgets sent to him from the Democratic/Progressive dominated house and did a lot to encourage small business growth in the state. A very moderate and pragmatic man.

    And Dean had a lot more governing experience than Obama does. Obama has ideas. Dean gave us a balanced budget year after year, and didn’t bow to pressure from his own party.

    Not that you’d have known it by the way he let himself become martyr to extreme causes he never before believed in. I was extremely disheartened by the whole affair.

  2. Jesus Hortence Christ, so much analysis has been given to “The Dean Scream”. I’ve never understood why everyone lost their shit over it. Gosh, he got excited and he vocalized it. How dare he not be an on-message automaton all the time.

    Seriously, what exactly is the big deal?

  3. I’m skeptical about Obama’s sudden rise in the polls (against both Hillary and the GOP field).

    I get the distinct impression that many folks are lying on these surveys. I have no direct evidence to contradict Obama’s supposed ascendance, so it’s just “gut feeling” supposition for now. But my intuition tells me there’s always a portion of the public who will say X, and then do Y, especially when it involves minority issues.

    It’s the same with same-sex marriage referendums. Pre-election polls usually show those proposed bans passing by a much slimmer margin than 70-80%. That’s because some people are embarassed enough to lie to pollsters. But once they’re in that voting booth, all bets are off.

  4. I don’t think it matters as much now who wins the “early” contests. Now they almost all are early. So if one loses the first four, you have the Super Tuesdays soon after to campaign hard for.

    As for the Howard Dean scream, it’s very simple. The media played it over and over, and it got freaky to people. Just another example of something that was not a big deal, became a big deal, because the media said it was a big deal. In this case, too many people let the media decide who was going to win the Democratic nomination, or at least, who wasn’t going to win it.

    It looks like it will be a tough race for both party nominations. Something that I really would like to see. I would like to see non establishment candidates do well (although some of the Republicans are frankly quite scary, like Huckabee, Tancredo, and mega flip-flop Romney).

  5. But my intuition tells me there’s always a portion of the public who will say X, and then do Y, especially when it involves minority issues.

    Exactly.

  6. Pingback: Like I Said . . . « I Must Be Dreaming

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